On December 18, 2020 the Bureau of Reclamation reported at the Colorado River Water Users Association meeting on the status of the Colorado River and the intended process for moving forward on the review and revision of the 2007 Shortage Guidelines. Lake Powell currently stands at 43% full while Lake Mead is 39% and the entire reservoir system at 46%. The runoff into Lake Powell in Water Year 2020 was 54% of average. The projected 2021 runoff into Lake Powell in 2021 is 6.23 maf or 58% of normal. As of December 1, 2020 the snowpack is at 70% of median levels. Why is this important? The levels of the two largest reservoirs dictate how much water that the Upper Basin will release to the Lower Basin over the water year.

In 2007 the Department of the Interior and the seven Colorado River Basin states finalized the Interim Shortage Guidelines. They were forced to implement this action due to significant basin drought conditions that occurred during 2000 to 2004 resulting in the lowest 5 year average hydrology on record and the loss of over 50% of the storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead. The guidelines had three objectives: (1) improve reservoir management by the Bureau of Reclamation, (2) provide mainstem water users greater predictability on available water, and (3) provide additional mechanisms for the storage and delivery of water supplies in Lake Mead. These shortage guidelines set targets for releases based on Colorado River system hydrology and resulting reservoir elevations. The 2007 Shortage Guidelines have and endpoint of December 31, 2026. Reclamation and the Basin States implemented the guidelines in Water Year 2008.

By 2017 the drought conditions in the Colorado River Basin worsened and it was clear with the existing release requirements and downstream water demands in the Lower Basin, that additional efforts were going to be required to avoid the elevations at Lake Mead falling to levels where Federal government intervention could occur. As a result the states agreed to enter into discussions to implement further actions to reduce water withdrawals from Lake Mead. These discussions yielded the Drought Contingency Plan which provided mechanisms for the Lower Basin states to voluntarily reduce their withdrawals from the Colorado River, provide opportunities to protect saved water in Lake Mead and to explore additional opportunities in the Upper Basin states to address demand management and the creation of a water bank in Lake Powell. The Drought Contingency Plan was approved by Congress and the White House in 2019 and serves as a stepping stone until the review of the 2007 Shortage Guidelines can be completed.

With that as background, here is the status of the upcoming negotiations for the 2026 Shortage Criteria Guidelines. In December 2019 the Secretary of the Interior directed the Bureau of Reclamation to initiate a review of the 2007 Shortage Criteria implementation. This was called the “7D Review” and focused on a review of the implementation and results of the 2007 Shortage Criteria for the time period of 2008 to 2019. The Bureau of Reclamation completed a technical retrospective assessment of both quantitative and qualitative elements and their effectiveness is achieving the objectives of the 2007 Shortage Guidelines. That report was completed, reviewed and the final version released on December 18, 2020. The report concluded that (1) the Guidelines largely met the purpose and themes of the 2007 Guidelines, (2) significant experience was gained over the 12 years assessed and improved predictability in water management, and (3) the increasing severity of the Colorado River Basin drought necessitated the development of the Drought Contingency Plans to reduce increased risk of lower elevations of Lake Mead.

Going forward the intent is to begin formal discussions with the seven Colorado River Basin states in 2021. The specific plan awaits direction from the new Administration and discussions amongst the state water leaders. Several key issues will need to be ironed out including the role of the 29 tribes that make up the Colorado River Basin, how stakeholders will participate, and the formal dialogue with the Republic of Mexico on their role in reduced flow conditions. It is anticipated that like the 2007 Shortage Guidelines, NEPA compliance and support from Congress will be required. Significant challenges related to the ongoing drought, continued structural deficit in releases from Lake Mead, and the concerns in reducing demands while increasing water management flexibility will require developing shortage guidelines that are based on science, legal requirements and the reality that collaborative, adaptable and innovative solutions be developed.